CA-40 is one of the most unusual races in the country — the only California district where two sitting incumbents face off in the same primary. Under Prop 50, parts of the old CA-40 (Young Kim) and CA-41 (Ken Calvert) were merged into a new Republican-leaning district stretching from Mission Viejo to Menifee.[1]
Key dynamics among the candidates:
- Ken Calvert (72, $5.2M) represents 51% of the new district and has 34 years of seniority, including a seat on Appropriations.
- Young Kim (63, $7.6M) is the best-funded candidate and represents 35% of the district with strong OC ties.
- The Calvert vs. Kim GOP primary battle is the central drama — both are spending heavily to win the Republican base.
- Esther Kim Varet (45, $2.7M) leads the Democratic field as a self-funding millennial outsider, followed by Lisa Ramirez ($392K), Joe Kerr ($223K), and Claude Keissieh ($34K).
- Nina Linh ($267K) is the sole independent candidate positioning herself as a centrist alternative.
- The biggest risk for Republicans is that Calvert and Kim split the GOP vote, allowing two Democrats (or a Democrat and one Republican) to claim the top-two slots — though the district's Trump +12 lean makes that unlikely.
- Latest polls show Calvert and Kim leading the field, with Varet and Kerr in the next tier, and a significant undecided bloc.
Likely outcome: Calvert and Kim are expected to take the top two spots, setting up an expensive all-Republican general election. If one falters, Varet ($2.7M) has the resources to capitalize. The winner in November will be heavily favored to hold the seat for the GOP.
Primary: June 2, 2026 — General: November 3, 2026