This is a classic incumbent vs. challenger race in a low-turnout primary. Incumbent Peter Aldana has held the office since 2014 and has never faced a contested election — he ran unopposed in 2018 and 2022. Jared McBride is running as a conservative outsider promising to audit the office and cut property taxes.
- Aldana's advantage: 30+ years of experience in the office, a clean record, and endorsements from county assessors statewide. He has run the office without controversy and modernized services incrementally. In a low-information county race, the incumbent advantage is significant.
- McBride's opening: Property tax frustration is real — Riverside County has seen rapid home value increases. His message of stopping "property tax gouging" and cutting bureaucratic waste could resonate with conservative voters in the county's inland areas. Reform California's endorsement gives him some organizational backing.
- Turnout factor: In a June primary with no presidential race at the top of the ticket, turnout will be low and skew older and more partisan. Conservative voters energized by the top-of-ticket races may boost McBride's performance.
- Key question: Can McBride convince voters that the assessor's office is broken enough to replace a 12-year incumbent with no scandal? Or will Aldana's low-key competence and institutional support carry him to another term?
Likely outcome: Aldana starts as the clear favorite, but McBride could force a November runoff if he consolidates conservative support and Aldana fails to reach 50% + 1 in the primary.
Primary: June 2, 2026 — General: November 3, 2026