Incumbent Curt Hagman (12-year supervisor, former State Assemblymember) faces Democratic challenger Christina Gagnier (former school board member, attorney, education advocate). Hagman has deep institutional experience — he serves as SCAG President, IEHP Chair, Ontario Airport Authority Vice President, and has strong connections across the region. Gagnier is running as a reform candidate focused on economic diversification (beyond warehouses), anti-corruption, and civil rights.
- Hagman's advantage: Name recognition, institutional support, and a track record of delivering for the district. He won outright in the 2022 primary with 56.9% against Connie Leyva. In a low-turnout primary, his established network gives him a strong edge.
- Gagnier's opening: Democratic Party endorsement, growing Democratic registration in the district, and a reform message that could appeal to voters frustrated by warehouse proliferation and county governance. If she can consolidate Democratic voters and keep Hagman below 50%, she can force a November runoff.
- Turnout factor: Low-turnout June primary typically favors the well-known incumbent. Higher Democratic turnout in November could shift the dynamics in a runoff.
- Key question: Can Gagnier's coalition of Democrats, education advocates, and reform-minded voters keep Hagman under 50%? Or will Hagman's deep institutional ties and low-primary turnout deliver another outright primary win?
Likely outcome: Hagman wins outright in the primary, or finishes first and wins easily in November. Gagnier's best hope is keeping Hagman below 50% in the primary and hoping higher Democratic turnout in November changes the dynamics.
Primary: June 2, 2026 — General: November 3, 2026