This is a wide-open race with 10 candidates, no clear frontrunner, and 32% of likely voters still undecided according to the most recent polling. The office is nonpartisan, but party affiliation matters enormously in practice. Key dynamics:
- The money race: Anthony Rendon leads with ~$1M cash on hand, followed by Al Muratsuchi ($349K) and Sonja Shaw ($167K). But name ID and endorsements may matter more than cash in a low-turnout primary.
- The union split: CTA (largest teachers union) backs Barrera. CFT and CSEA back Muratsuchi. CA Labor Federation backs Rendon. No single union has consolidated labor — this splintered support could help Shaw.
- The Democratic dilemma: Six Democrats (Barrera, Muratsuchi, Rendon, Newman, Henderson, Long) plus one Democrat-adjacent (Castaneda Leal) are splitting the left-of-center vote. If the Democrat vote fragments badly, Sonja Shaw (R) could slip into the top 2 with ~15-20% of the vote.
- Polls: 32% undecided; Long and Rendon at 9% each; Barrera and Shaw at 7%; Muratsuchi and Newman at 6%; Henderson at 5%. No one has broken away.
- Wild card: Gov. Newsom's proposal to transfer the superintendent's powers to a governor-appointed commissioner. All candidates oppose it, but if it gains traction before November, it could reshape the office the winner will actually hold.
Likely top-two: Conventional wisdom says two Democrats or one Democrat + Shaw. The most plausible scenarios: Rendon + Muratsuchi (two established legislators), Rendon + Shaw (Dem split lets Shaw through), or a surprise surge from Barrera (CTA organizational power) or Long (2022 near-miss momentum).
Primary: June 2, 2026 — General: November 3, 2026