2026 Primary Election — June 2, 2026
This is a two-tier race. Eleni Kounalakis (D) is the clear front-runner with $8.4M and endorsements from Newsom, Clinton, Pelosi, Boxer, and most of the Democratic establishment. Anna Caballero (D) is her main challenger — a seasoned legislator with $900K, labor backing, and the executive experience of running a state agency under Jerry Brown. Key dynamics:
Likely top-two: Kounalakis advances to November. The second spot depends on whether Republican voters turn out for Hawks in a split GOP field or whether Caballero can consolidate enough Democratic votes to edge her out. Conventional wisdom favors Kounalakis vs. Caballero, but a Kounalakis vs. Hawks November matchup is possible if Democratic turnout splits three ways. In a general election, the Democrat is heavily favored in blue California.
Primary: June 2, 2026 — General: November 3, 2026