2026 Primary Election — June 2, 2026
Critical context: Two Republicans (Steve Hilton 17–22%, Chad Bianco 14–17%) have led most polls. Six Democrats are splitting the liberal vote, creating a real risk that no Democrat reaches the general election.[1]
The late-surge candidate is Xavier Becerra, who jumped from low single digits to 19% (Emerson College, May 2026) after Eric Swalwell dropped out amid sexual misconduct allegations. Becerra now leads the Democratic field for the first time, powered by Assembly Speaker Rivas's endorsement, a 7-figure ad buy, and the strongest government resume in the race.[6]
Tom Steyer (14–17%) has spent $130M+ on advertising and consolidated endorsements from CTA, CNA, SEIU, CA Labor Fed, and the Sierra Club — a near-unified labor-progressive coalition. His wealth is both his biggest asset and his biggest vulnerability.
Katie Porter (10%), once the Democratic frontrunner, has slipped after an awkward interview went viral and progressive groups chose Steyer over her. She still has the highest name ID, 11 labor endorsements, and Elizabeth Warren's backing.
Matt Mahan (5–8%) raised $7M+ in his first week from Silicon Valley. Antonio Villaraigosa (3–5%) and Tony Thurmond (1–3%) have not gained traction.
Most likely outcome: The two general-election slots go to Republican Steve Hilton and one Democrat (Becerra or Steyer). A Democratic shutout (two Republicans advancing) remains a real but declining possibility.
Primary: June 2, 2026 — General: November 3, 2026