November 3, 2026 — control of the U.S. Senate and U.S. House
Ratings follow the Cook Political Report as of September 2026. Republicans are favored overall, but Democrats have credible pickup paths in NC, ME, MI, and OH.
| State | Type | Matchup | Rating | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | R open | Roy Cooper (D) vs. Michael Whatley (R) | Lean D | Democrats' best pickup. Tillis retiring; ex-Gov. Cooper led every mid-2026 poll and outraised Whatley heavily. |
| Maine | R held | Susan Collins (R, inc) vs. Troy Jackson (D) | Toss-up | Collins's toughest race yet; Jackson is the former president of the Maine Senate. Only R-held seat in a Harris-won state. |
| Michigan | D open | Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R) | Toss-up | Peters retiring. GOP's best shot at a Dem seat. El-Sayed won a bitter progressive-backed primary; slight Dem favorite in polling. |
| Ohio | R special | Jon Husted (R, appt.) vs. Sherrod Brown (D) | Toss-up | Full-term race for Vance's old seat. Ex-Sen. Brown vs. appointee Husted; Brown has the cash edge (about $16M COH). |
| Georgia | D held | Jon Ossoff (D, inc) vs. Mike Collins (R) | Lean D | Ossoff favored with a huge war chest, but GA is a top-tier battleground and Collins has Trump's endorsement. |
| Iowa | R open | Ashley Hinson (R) vs. Josh Turek (D) | Lean R | Ernst retiring. Trade-policy discontent among farmers has made it more competitive than usual; Turek outraised expectations. |
| New Hampshire | R open | Chris Pappas (D) vs. John E. Sununu (R) | Lean D | Open seat after Shaheen retirement. Pappas & Sununu both won big Sept 8 primaries; a classic NH swing race. |
| Texas | R open | Ken Paxton (R) vs. James Talarico (D) | Lean R | Cornyn retiring. Talarico set a Q2 fundraising record and outraised Paxton by $26M; best Texas Senate chance in 30 yrs, still an uphill R state. |
| Alaska | R held | Dan Sullivan (R, inc) vs. Mary Peltola (D) | Lean R | Peltola won statewide as the House member; ranked-choice election with a look-alike decoy "Dan J. Sullivan" also on the ballot. |
Also worth a glance: Florida (R-incumbent Ashley Moody favored over progressive Angie Nixon) and Nebraska (R-incumbent Pete Ricketts facing independent Dan Osborn). The likeliest Senate outcome per mid-2026 Cook analysis: Democrats net 1–3 seats — short of the 4 they need.
All 435 seats are up. Raters see Democrats as slight favorites to flip the chamber.
| Route to the Majority | What to watch | Race impact |
|---|---|---|
| National environment | A sour national mood, trade-policy fallout, and court fights have Democrats outperforming in special elections and generic-ballot polls through 2026. | Sets the wind behind all California races. |
| California battlegrounds | California holds several of the nation's most competitive seats. The marquee: CA-48 (Desmond vs. von Wilpert, covered on this site) — a genuine Toss-up where DCCC leaders concede the majority may run through it. CA-31 (safe D) and CA-40 (R-on-R, safe R) are not swing seats. | CA-48 alone could be the deciding seat for a 218-seat majority. |
| Other swing states | New York (several GOP-held metro seats), New Jersey (a handful), plus Phoenix/Tucson-area AZ and Las Vegas/Henderson NV races will decide the margin. | NY/NJ suburban seats are Democrats' biggest pickup pool outside CA. |
| Special-election math | A handful of vacancies (currently ~4) get filled in-season; every seat counts toward the 218 threshold. | Keeps the threshold math tight through Election Day. |
The California X-factor: After the June 2026 Prop 50 redistricting redraw, several Southern California districts became more competitive — most importantly the new-leaning-Democratic CA-48, while CA-40 consolidated two GOP incumbents into one safe Republican seat. Democrats' national path essentially requires holding all their swing seats and sweeping races like CA-48.