How Should You Vote? — A Guide by Political View
November 3, 2026 — recommended picks for the 12 races and 14 propositions on the California ballot, tailored to five political perspectives
How this page works: Every section below assumes a distinct political worldview — Progressive, Liberal (mainstream Democrat), Moderate / Independent, Libertarian, and Conservative — and translates the candidate-platform, endorsement, and ballot-measure research on this site into a concrete ballot. Each recommendation comes with the one-line reason that follows from that perspective. Where the research genuinely splits a perspective, the guide says so ("Your call"). The underlying detail for every candidate and proposition is one click away on the race and measure pages.
One ballot, two fights: Your votes below the governor are part of the national House-control math — Democrats need a net gain of six seats, and analysts on this site's
nationwide page treat
CA-48 as the California seat most likely to decide the chamber. CA-31 is safely Democratic and CA-40 (a Republican-on-Republican runoff under the new Prop 50 map) is safe Republican either way. Nothing on this page is party-line advice — it is an analysis of which candidates and measures each worldview most consistently points toward.
At a glance: the full Democratic ticket as far down as BOE, Jane Kim (not Allen) for Insurance Commissioner, Richard Barrera for schools, and a Yes on the four tax-and-spend measures (1, 3, 37, 40) with a No on every anti-tax countermeasure (41, 42, 43) and on Prop 39 voter ID.
Races
| Office / Race | Vote | Why it follows for this view |
|---|
| Governor | Xavier Becerra Dem | Former HHS Secretary who defended the ACA and, as AG, filed 120+ suits against the first Trump administration; Hilton runs a Trump-endorsed tax-cut platform. |
| Lt. Governor | Fiona Ma Dem | Two-time statewide winner, CPA financial stewardship, housing and climate-finance focus; Romero is her exact opposite on schools and safety. |
| Secretary of State | Shirley Weber Dem | Incumbent who defends mail-in voting and automatic registration and openly opposes Prop 39's ID mandate; Wagner runs the integrity/conservative alternative. |
| Controller | Malia Cohen Dem | Incumbent watchdog backed by unions and the establishment; a near-lock seat where the alternative is a fiscal-discipline Republican. |
| Treasurer | Eleni Kounalakis Dem | Housing-bond execution, climate/green finance, and pension stewardship; the Democrat in an open-seat race. |
| Attorney General | Rob Bonta Dem | The state's lead litigator against federal overreach on climate, firearms, and immigrant rights; Gates wants to end that political-litigant role. |
| Insurance Commissioner | Jane Kim Dem | The consumer-protection candidate — tougher rate regulation and enforcement against bad-faith claims; Allen is the legislative-insider profile. |
| Superintendent (nonpartisan) | Richard Barrera NPP | Union-backed public-school standard-bearer who defends inclusive standards and opposes curriculum bans; Shaw runs the parent-rights/conservative campaign. |
| Board of Equalization-4 | Tom Umberg Dem | Senate Judiciary chair protecting homeowner and senior property-tax fairness — the rare Democrat for a seat the GOP targets. |
| CA-31 U.S. House | Gil Cisneros Dem | Incumbent Dem in a safe-D seat: veterans, housing, college affordability; seat stays Democratic regardless. |
| CA-40 U.S. House | None | All-Republican runoff — no Democratic or progressive candidate on the ballot; the seat stays Republican either way. |
| CA-48 U.S. House | Marni von Wilpert Dem | DCCC "Red to Blue" recruit, ghost-gun law author, union/workers record — and the California seat most likely to decide U.S. House control. |
Ballot Measures
| Measure | Vote | Why it follows for this view |
|---|
| Prop 1 — Housing bond | Yes | $1.25B for veterans plus affordable units for workers, seniors, and people with disabilities — no new taxes. |
| Prop 2 — Bigger rainy-day fund | Yes | Protects schools, hospitals, and public safety from the deepest cuts in downturns; backed by the LAO and firefighters. |
| Prop 3 — Keep high-income tax | Yes | Not a new tax — makes permanent the surcharge the wealthiest 2% have paid for 15 years, with revenue earmarked for classrooms. |
| Prop 4 — Public campaign financing | Yes | Ends California's status as the only state that bans public financing — elections "won, not bought." |
| Prop 5 — Change recalls | Yes | Separates removal from replacement so a governor can't be unseated in a maneuver where a fringe shares the ticket. |
| Prop 37 — Homeownership loans | Yes | Down-payment help for working- and middle-class buyers at zero taxpayer cost — loans are repaid by the buyers. |
| Prop 38 — Immunology research bond | Yes | Alzheimer's, cancer, and heart-disease research with a 20% California price discount; patient-advocacy backing. |
| Prop 39 — Photo ID to vote | No | Adds burdens on low-income, elderly, disabled, and homeless voters; opposed by Weber, ACLU, NAACP, and the League. |
| Prop 40 — Billionaires' wealth tax | Yes | One-time 5% on about 200 billionaires raising roughly $100B for public health care; backed by Sanders, SEIU, and the CNA. |
| Prop 41 — Audits of special taxes | No | A countermeasure drafted to burden the Prop 40 wealth tax with pre-ballot red tape — billionaire-funded. |
| Prop 42 — Ban wealth taxes | No | Engineered to cancel Prop 40 and protect the very wealthiest from paying for the services that built the state. |
| Prop 43 — Two-thirds for local taxes | No | Would let 33.4% of voters block funding for police, fire, schools, and transit; opposed by school employees and nurses. |
| Prop 44 — Clinics spend 90% on care | No | Doctors and the AAP warn a rigid formula would undercut safety-net clinics serving the communities this view most cares about. |
| Prop 45 — Streamline CEQA | No | Limits environmental and public review of major projects; opposed by Clean Air, Clean Water Action, and Physicians for Social Responsibility. |
At a glance: close to the Progressive ballot but with the establishment in mind — Ben Allen (not Kim) for Insurance Commissioner, unified Democratic ticket, and the same measure line as the left on taxes, voter ID, and the environment.
Races
| Office / Race | Vote | Why it follows for this view |
|---|
| Governor | Xavier Becerra Dem | The party's frontrunner — national name ID, ACA credentials, and the endorsed establishment pick with a 52–31 early poll lead. |
| Lt. Governor | Fiona Ma Dem | Ticket-straight Dem choice; her CPA-stewardship brand also plays well to the moderate voters this wing courts. |
| Secretary of State | Shirley Weber Dem | Incumbent and institutional pick; the party and voting-rights groups are unified behind her against the Prop 39 movement. |
| Controller | Malia Cohen Dem | Incumbent endorsed by the Dem establishment and public-employee unions; a lock the party must defend. |
| Treasurer | Eleni Kounalakis Dem | Obama-administration credential, eight years of statewide service, and the establishment's housing/climate donor base. |
| Attorney General | Rob Bonta Dem | Incumbent who leads the state's defense against Trump-administration court fights — core institutional work for this wing. |
| Insurance Commissioner | Ben Allen Dem | State senator who actually legislated on insurance and elections; the insider-competence pick this wing prefers over Kim's activist brand. |
| Superintendent (nonpartisan) | Richard Barrera NPP | The education-establishment standard-bearer with the teachers-union machine — the coalition that typically decides SPI races. |
| Board of Equalization-4 | Tom Umberg Dem | Democratic nominee and Senate Judiciary chair; his Army/prosecutor record neutralizes the usual Dem-on-safety attacks. |
| CA-31 U.S. House | Gil Cisneros Dem | Incumbent in a safe-D seat; signal vote in the national fight for the House majority. |
| CA-40 U.S. House | None | All-GOP runoff after the Prop 50 redraw; rated safe Republican regardless of the outcome. |
| CA-48 U.S. House | Marni von Wilpert Dem | The party's Red-to-Blue pickup target in a toss-up lawyers call the possible deciding seat for a 218-seat majority. |
Ballot Measures
| Measure | Vote | Why it follows for this view |
|---|
| Prop 1 — Housing bond | Yes | Mainstream Dem coalition (state housing agencies, veterans groups) backs the $11.25B housing and vets investment. |
| Prop 2 — Bigger rainy-day fund | Yes | Bipartisan, LAO-recommended fiscal cushion championed by Newsom and legislative leaders of both parties. |
| Prop 3 — Keep high-income tax | Yes | Keeps the school-funding surcharge on the top 2% alive; supported by school employees and firefighters. |
| Prop 4 — Public campaign financing | Yes | Good-government groups (Common Cause, League of Women Voters) lead it; reduces big-money influence. |
| Prop 5 — Change recalls | Yes | League and Common Cause back separating removal from replacement — protects majority rule in recalls. |
| Prop 37 — Homeownership loans | Yes | Middle-class ownership program that the Prop 1 coalition treats as its buyer-oriented companion — no taxpayer cost. |
| Prop 38 — Immunology research bond | Yes | Health-cure research with patient-advocacy support; the borrowing is the establishment's normal tool for public goods. |
| Prop 39 — Photo ID to vote | No | The party's voting-rights base and the SoS all oppose it as a suppression burden. |
| Prop 40 — Billionaires' wealth tax | Yes | Backed by SEIU, CTA, and Planned Parenthood affiliates; note some Dem leaders worry about capital flight and enforceability. |
| Prop 41 — Audits of special taxes | No | A countermeasure to the wealth tax; the Dem-aligned services coalition reads it as red tape on needed revenue. |
| Prop 42 — Ban wealth taxes | No | Same reading — engineered to kill Prop 40 and protect the ultra-wealthy. |
| Prop 43 — Two-thirds for local taxes | No | School-employee and nursing groups warn it blocks local services funding with a superminority veto. |
| Prop 44 — Clinics spend 90% on care | No | The AAP, CMA, and school-nurse groups — institutions this wing trusts — call it dangerous for safety-net care. |
| Prop 45 — Streamline CEQA | No | Environmental groups this wing listens to (Clean Air, Clean Water Action) oppose cutting review timelines. |
At a glance: splits the ticket on merit — Democrats for the top races and statewide experience, Republicans for the watchdog offices (Controller, BOE) where a critic fits the job — and a Yes on transparency and fiscal-cushion measures with a No on both the wealth tax and the voter-suppression framing.
Races
| Office / Race | Vote | Why it follows for this view |
|---|
| Governor | Xavier Becerra Dem | Independents already break for him 43–28; Hilton's $60–65B plan would stall against a Dem-supermajority Legislature. |
| Lt. Governor | Fiona Ma Dem | The low-drama, stewardship choice in the least-watched race — Romero's party switch is the riskier bet. |
| Secretary of State | Shirley Weber Dem | Continuity for the state's election machinery; if ballot integrity is your issue, Wagner is the honest alternative — this is a genuine split. |
| Controller | Herb Morgan Rep | The one office where a critic fits the job: real pension-fiduciary experience and an explicit audit-and-debt watchdog platform. |
| Treasurer | Eleni Kounalakis Dem | Macroeconomic credentials (Harvard MBA, bond markets) outweigh Hawks' outsider pitch in the state's least-watched race. |
| Attorney General | Rob Bonta Dem | Keep the office's firepower during federal litigation fights; Gates' "depoliticize the AG" argument is worth weighing but a hinge bet. |
| Insurance Commissioner | Ben Allen Dem | Legislative competence on the wildfire-insurance problem over Kim's populist rate-regulation; the all-Dem runoff rewards the informed pick. |
| Superintendent (nonpartisan) | Your call | Shaw (phonics, parent rights) is the reform candidate; Barrera (funding, teachers) is the stability pick — decide on your education-policy priority. |
| Board of Equalization-4 | Your call | Bilodeau (water-district president, taxpayer focus) vs. Umberg (experience, veterans) — two credible career profiles in a competitive district. |
| CA-31 U.S. House | Gil Cisneros Dem | Safe-D seat; the choice doesn't change the outcome, though his affordability message plays to independent concerns. |
| CA-40 U.S. House | None needed | Safe-Republican all-GOP runoff; vote Calvert or Kim only if your old district makes one your representative of record. |
| CA-48 U.S. House | Marni von Wilpert Dem | The toss-up that could decide House control; her moderate-Dem profile fits independents, though Desmond's "common sense" pitch is the credible alternative. |
Ballot Measures
| Measure | Vote | Why it follows for this view |
|---|
| Prop 1 — Housing bond | Yes | Real housing need with no new taxes — but the ~$18.5B debt-service tab is a fair cost to weigh. |
| Prop 2 — Bigger rainy-day fund | Yes | The LAO-endorsed fiscal cushion makes sense even if the "slush fund" critique carries some sting. |
| Prop 3 — Keep high-income tax | Yes | Avoids a sudden revenue cliff for schools; conceding the "temporary became permanent" objection. |
| Prop 4 — Public campaign financing | Yes | Good-government reform led by the League and Common Cause; the HJTA "taxpayer-funded incumbent" worry is the other side. |
| Prop 5 — Change recalls | Yes | Ends the "redo the election" replacement circus while keeping the recall itself — a reasonable middle position. |
| Prop 37 — Homeownership loans | Yes | Costs taxpayers nothing and advances middle-class ownership — an easy Yes on both fiscal and social grounds. |
| Prop 38 — Immunology research bond | Yes | Broadly popular health research; the $13B-plus price tag is the honest reason many moderates hesitate. |
| Prop 39 — Photo ID to vote | Leaning Yes | Independents skew toward integrity measures (audits, roll cleanup) — but the burden on mail voters and low-income groups is a real counterweight. |
| Prop 40 — Billionaires' wealth tax | No | A one-time wealth levy raises capital-flight, feasibility, and retirement-account questions that a risk-averse view can't ignore. |
| Prop 41 — Audits of special taxes | Yes | Independent audits before new taxes is transparency anyone can support, even if the prop is partly a Prop 40 counter. |
| Prop 42 — Ban wealth taxes | Yes | Protecting 401(k)s and retirement savings from new wealth taxes is the kind of firewall that plays across the center. |
| Prop 43 — Two-thirds for local taxes | Yes | Taxpayer protection has broad center appeal — weighing the concern that 33.4% could then block needed services. |
| Prop 44 — Clinics spend 90% on care | Leaning No | "90% to care" polls great, but the AAP and CMA's warning that it de-fangs safety-net clinics tips a cautious center to No. |
| Prop 45 — Streamline CEQA | Yes | The 73%-support build-more measure — housing, water, and clean energy speed up even as environmental groups object. |
At a glance: the Republican ticket is the closer fit on economics, with Gates for a depoliticized AG and Shaw for school choice — and a measure line that says Yes to audits, debt burdens' and a wealth-tax ban but No to campaign subsidies, mandates on nonprofits, and "temporary" taxes made permanent.
Races
| Office / Race | Vote | Why it follows for this view |
|---|
| Governor | Steve Hilton Rep | First $100K tax-free, flat 7.5% above it, no tax on tips, "break up PG&E" — an economic-freedom platform even where its Trump ties chafe. |
| Lt. Governor | Gloria Romero Rep | School choice, parental authority, and an anti-establishment crossover career — the freer hand on the LG's education-leaning issues. |
| Secretary of State | Don Wagner Rep | Ballot integrity, corporate-filing efficiency, and fiscal grip on the office — though his ID stance risks the surveillance this view dislikes. |
| Controller | Herb Morgan Rep | Independent audits, pension-funding reform, and cutting bond-administration and Wall Street fees — the fiscal-watchdog office suits him best. |
| Treasurer | Jennifer Hawks Rep | The outsider who promises higher returns and lower bond-issuance costs — minimal-government framing for a finance office. |
| Attorney General | Michael Gates Rep | Wants to end AG-as-political-litigant against the federal government and stop meritless state suits against localities. |
| Insurance Commissioner | Ben Allen Dem | Neither Dem favors deregulation; Allen's market-stabilization approach is the least interventionist of the two in an all-Dem runoff. |
| Superintendent (nonpartisan) | Sonja Shaw NPP | The school-choice candidate — charters, open enrollment, phonics — even if her social curriculum agenda is more "values" than "freedom." |
| Board of Equalization-4 | Denis Bilodeau Rep | Taxpayer watchdog who wants to cut utility-rate assessments and audit BOE appraisals — exactly the office's proper role. |
| CA-31 U.S. House | Eric Ching Rep | Cut taxes, cut red tape, support small business — the closest CA-31 offers, even though the seat stays Democratic. |
| CA-40 U.S. House | Either | Both candidates are pro-law-enforcement fiscal conservatives — no meaningful libertarian difference in an all-GOP seat. |
| CA-48 U.S. House | Jim Desmond Rep | "Common sense," less gridlock, fewer federal mandates, with a pilot's and small-business record — weigh the Trump endorsement against that. |
Ballot Measures
| Measure | Vote | Why it follows for this view |
|---|
| Prop 1 — Housing bond | No | Borrowing ~$18.5B over 40 years for a program the state could fund from its existing budget. |
| Prop 2 — Bigger rainy-day fund | Yes | One of the rare propositions that stores money instead of spending it — a genuine fiscal-discipline vote. |
| Prop 3 — Keep high-income tax | No | Don't make a "temporary" surcharge permanent — let a scheduled tax cut actually happen. |
| Prop 4 — Public campaign financing | No | Taxpayer dollars for candidates is subsidy, not freedom; HJTA's objection lands with this view. |
| Prop 5 — Change recalls | No | Keep the recall intact as a direct check on incumbents; don't let Sacramento route replacement through appointments. |
| Prop 37 — Homeownership loans | Yes | Voluntary, repaid by buyers, zero General Fund cost — a tolerable program by this view's standards. |
| Prop 38 — Immunology research bond | No | More public borrowing for what private philanthropy and federal grants already fund. |
| Prop 39 — Photo ID to vote | Yes | A low-cost, verify-the-basics integrity step — with a caveat about the price of new ID requirements and ID-linked databases. |
| Prop 40 — Billionaires' wealth tax | No | Wealth taxation on savings and retirement accounts invites capital flight — a textbook encroachment this view rejects. |
| Prop 41 — Audits of special taxes | Yes | Transparency and accountability before taxes are enacted — a check on government, whatever its sponsor's motives. |
| Prop 42 — Ban wealth taxes | Yes | A constitutional firewall protecting 401(k)s, pensions, and personal savings from new wealth taxes. |
| Prop 43 — Two-thirds for local taxes | Yes | A higher bar before elected officials can raise taxes is core protective-of-liberty position, even where it slows services. |
| Prop 44 — Clinics spend 90% on care | No | Don't let Sacramento dictate how private nonprofits spend their revenue — a mandate, not a remedy. |
| Prop 45 — Streamline CEQA | Yes | The biggest red-tape rollback on the ballot — faster review and fewer lawsuit chokepoints on housing, water, and energy. |
At a glance: the full Republican slate plus Shaw for superintendent and the parent-rights/ballot-integrity movement — a widespread No on bonds and new taxes, Yes on Prop 39 voter ID, the wealth-tax ban, audits, and CEQA reform.
Races
| Office / Race | Vote | Why it follows for this view |
|---|
| Governor | Steve Hilton Rep | The GOP's first credible statewide brand in 20 years: cut taxes, $3 gas, break up PG&E, roll back builder fees. |
| Lt. Governor | Gloria Romero Rep | A Latina ex-Democratic Majority Leader turned Republican running on school reform, parental authority, and public safety. |
| Secretary of State | Don Wagner Rep | Ballot integrity and roll-maintenance — the SoS race is the season's proxy battle for the Prop 39 platform. |
| Controller | Herb Morgan Rep | Independent budget audits, pension reform, and cutting public debt — the fiscal-audit message matching Prop 41's theme. |
| Treasurer | Jennifer Hawks Rep | The outsider for higher returns and lower bond costs in an open-seat race the GOP thinks it can contest. |
| Attorney General | Michael Gates Rep | A prosecutor's record from the U.S. Attorney's Office and DOJ, and a pledge to stop the AG suing the federal government and localities. |
| Insurance Commissioner | None | The top-two produced two Democrats, so a Republican holds no option; if forced, Allen is the less interventionist of the two. |
| Superintendent (nonpartisan) | Sonja Shaw NPP | The parent-rights standard-bearer — phonics, school choice, and rolling back SEL and identity curricula. |
| Board of Equalization-4 | Denis Bilodeau Rep | The GOP's best below-the-governor flip target — taxpayer watchdog with deep Orange County and water-district roots. |
| CA-31 U.S. House | Eric Ching Rep | Affordability, public safety, and border-enforcement platform; the seat is expected to stay Democratic. |
| CA-40 U.S. House | Calvert or Kim Rep | Both are Republicans — choose your old-district incumbent: Calvert (51% of the turf, Defense appropriator) or Kim (moderate, best-funded, OC base). |
| CA-48 U.S. House | Jim Desmond Rep | Issa- and Trump-endorsed county supervisor with a Navy/pilot bio and "common sense" brand in the seat that could decide House control. |
Ballot Measures
| Measure | Vote | Why it follows for this view |
|---|
| Prop 1 — Housing bond | No | Roughly $18.5–$20B of debt service over 40 years — fund housing from the existing budget instead. |
| Prop 2 — Bigger rainy-day fund | No | The official opposition (Reform California) calls it a "slush fund for Sacramento politicians" without spending discipline. |
| Prop 3 — Keep high-income tax | No | Making a "temporary" tax on the top 2% permanent is precisely the revenue trap conservatives warn about. |
| Prop 4 — Public campaign financing | No | Repeals the voter-approved ban on taxpayer-funded campaigns; HJTA leads the opposition. |
| Prop 5 — Change recalls | No | Halves the century-old recall-and-replace right — Minority Leader Jones and Assemblymember Patterson's case. |
| Prop 37 — Homeownership loans | Yes | Zero taxpayer cost, loans repaid by buyers, and a working-class ownership path with no official opposition filed. |
| Prop 38 — Immunology research bond | No | Over $13B in borrowed money for research private philanthropy and federal grants already fund. |
| Prop 39 — Photo ID to vote | Yes | The Reform California flagship: photo ID, voter-roll cleanup, citizenship verification, and independent audits. |
| Prop 40 — Billionaires' wealth tax | No | A "flawed wealth-tax experiment" taxing retirement accounts, driving capital flight, and destabilizing the budget. |
| Prop 41 — Audits of special taxes | Yes | Independent audits before and during special-tax programs — accountability for how tax dollars are spent. |
| Prop 42 — Ban wealth taxes | Yes | A constitutional firewall protecting 401(k)s, pensions, and IRAs from new wealth or personal-property taxes. |
| Prop 43 — Two-thirds for local taxes | Yes | The "Local Taxpayer Protection Act" restoring the two-thirds bar for a defined class of local taxes — HJTA-backed. |
| Prop 44 — Clinics spend 90% on care | Yes | Cap administrative bloat and require taxpayer-funded clinics to spend 90% on actual patient care. |
| Prop 45 — Streamline CEQA | Yes | Chamber- and Reform-CA-aligned CEQA overhaul — 365-day review caps and shorter lawsuits to build housing, water, and energy. |